The geography of capital

An explorer for two papers on the cost of capital and Africa's power system

How to read this page

Paper B asks whether the continental savings of de-riskingLowering a country's cost of capital, for example through guarantees or cheaper public finance, modelled by moving its rates to the benchmark. each country alone add up to the saving of de-risking them all together. Each run moves one set of estimated 2025 rates, the country ratesThe estimated 2025 rates: a cost of capital for each country and technology, so a solar farm in one country can cost more to finance than in another., to the benchmark rateThe papers' reference cost of capital, 7%, the uniform rate most research models assume. and re-solves the whole continent's plan. A country's singleA de-risking run that moves one country's rates to the benchmark. gives its standalone continental saving, the fall in the continent's system costWhat the whole power system costs in a year: capital charges on new plant, storage and lines, operating costs and fuel. when that country alone is de-risked.

The 48 standalone continental savings are set against the joint savingThe run that moves every country's rates to the benchmark at once., the fall when every country is de-risked at once. If they add up, the sum of standalone continental savings equals the joint saving and the ratio R between them is one (additivityWhether the savings from de-risking countries one at a time add up to the saving from de-risking them all together.). Above one, the standalone savings count some of the same saving more than once.

Each saving splits into two parts. RepricingWorking out what a fixed plan would cost at a different set of rates, without changing what it builds or how it runs. is cheaper finance on the plan that's built anyway, and re-sitingThe part of a de-risking saving that comes from building differently, in other places or with other technologies. is the rest, the saving from building elsewhere or differently. The page shows which part holds the excess, how the excess falls when countries are grouped by power poolA regional group of national utilities that coordinate and trade electricity., and the same question asked by technology. Every country's run opens in Explore or Compare from the table of singles.